Accurate pipeline forecasting requires stage-weighted probability: MQLs at 10%, SQLs at 25%, Opportunities at 50%, Proposals at 75%. Raw pipeline values overestimate revenue by 60-80%. Weighted pipeline with these standard probabilities predicts actual revenue within ±12%. Best-in-class forecast accuracy is ±5%.

How do you calculate weighted pipeline value?

Weighted Pipeline = Σ(Deal Value × Stage Probability). Standard probabilities: Lead=5%, MQL=10%, SQL=25%, Discovery=35%, Proposal/Demo 50%, Negotiation 65%, Verbal Commit 80%, Contract Sent 90%. Sum all weighted values for total forecast. Update probabilities based on your 12-month historical conversion data.

What is a good pipeline-to-quota ratio?

Healthy pipeline coverage is 3-4x quota. If your quota is $100K/month, maintain $300-400K in weighted pipeline. Higher ratios (5x+) suggest qualification issues; lower ratios (<2x) indicate pipeline generation problems. Adjust based on your close rates.

How accurate should sales pipeline forecasts be?

Target forecast accuracy is ±10-15% for most B2B teams. Best-in-class achieves ±5%. Common accuracy killers: inflated deal values (pad by 20-30%), optimistic stage placement, and stale opportunities. Clean your pipeline monthly for better accuracy.

What stage probabilities should I use for B2B SaaS?

Standard B2B SaaS stage probabilities: Raw Lead 5%, MQL 10%, SQL 25%, Discovery 35%, Proposal/Demo 50%, Negotiation 65%, Verbal Commit 80%, Contract Sent 90%. Adjust based on your 12-month historical conversion data.

How do I improve pipeline velocity?

Pipeline velocity = (# Opportunities × Win Rate × Deal Value) ÷ Sales Cycle Length. Improve by: 1) Better qualification (higher win rate), 2) Upselling (larger deals), 3) Faster follow-up (shorter cycles), 4) Multi-threading (more stakeholder contacts per deal).

Pipeline value goes beyond the numbers. These qualitative factors determine whether your pipeline converts to revenue: